LABOR’S Steve Gibbons is favourite to be returned as the Member for Bendigo tomorrow on the back of a strong federal swing to the opposition.
However, his Liberal Party opponent Peter Kennedy is not out of the race, with Bendigo voters rarely sticking to the federal trend in recent years. Both men will press the flesh from today until the close of polls at 6pm tomorrow.
Both camps are confident they will do well, but neither is keen to admit it publicly.
“The three key federal issues for the Bendigo electorate in this election are workplace relations, healthcare and the impact of climate change,” Mr Gibbons said.
“Voting for a Rudd Labor government on Saturday will remove John Howard’s extreme WorkChoices laws and restore fairness to central Victorian workplaces.
“Labor will ratify the Kyoto Protocol, set targets for greenhouse gas emmissions and mandatory renewable energy requirements that will encourage the development of Australia’s renewable energy industries.”
“Labor will also invest almost $11 million in improving this region’s healthcare services, including $5 million for the redevelopment of the current Bendigo Health/Monash University  Primary Care Centre in Bendigo which will incorporate a GP clinic, $500,000 for a complex care unit in Maryborough and $5.2 million for Loddon Mallee Health Alliance’s Virtual Critical Care project.
The government has already given the funding to the Loddon critcal care project, outside of the election campaign, something Mr Kennedy was keen to point out.
“A positive voice and strong economic management of Australia’s $1.1 trillion economy by the Howard-Costello team are absolutely critical for growth in Bendigo and central Victoria,” he said.
 “We are fully committed to the Chinese precinct development to boost tourism, to a safer Calder Highway with $66 million for new projects, to supporting business and industry in creating more jobs and to providing more real and practical responses on the environment
 “We are committed to assisting our families with further tax cuts and flexible rebates for school expenses and child care, to better access to quality medical care and local GP recruitment.
“We can end the conspiracy of silence in having wall-to-wall Labor in Bendigo. The silence and negativity of Labor has no place in a vibrant and positive Bendigo.”
Less than one per cent separated both major parties’ candidates for the seat of Bendigo at the 2004 election.
Despite that result making the seat the most marginal in Victoria, neither leader has ventured to the region during the campaign, although Prime Minister John Howard did visit in July.
It could be argued from that, both parties believe the result is a fait accompli based on the national trend.
However history  suggests that might not be the case.
Not once in the past four elections have voters in the seat of Bendigo voted along the national swing.
In 1996, the five per cent national swing to the Liberals was halved in Bendigo.
The 1998 result was different, with a 4.35 per cent swing to Steve Gibbons, and a federal swing to Labor of 4.61 per cent.
In the 2001 election, there was a two per cent swing overall to the government, but a .1 per cent swing to Mr Gibbons.
At the 2004 poll, the national swing was 1.7 per cent to the government, but a 2.69  per cent swing to Liberal candidate Kevin Gibbins.
Since 1972 the Bendigo seat has been anything but a litmus test for the nation with opposition candidates winning in 1972, 1974, 1990, 1993 and since and including 1998.
Polling booths will be open from 8am to 6pm tomorrow.